Two of my recommendations for the Biden administration were quoted by Discourse Magazine. In this post, I discuss some details left on the cutting room floor. Topics include the history of the debt limit, the mechanics of debt limit suspension and reinstatement, Treasury's cash and debt management practices, as well as sources for data and projections.

Today, I launched the CPI Inflation Expectations Dashboard. Its purpose is to visualize the expected growth of consumer prices in the United States. The dashboard is free to access with the intention of better informing the public. In this post, I provide additional guidance on understanding these data.

Today, I launched the Inflation Targeting Dashboard. Its purpose is to illustrate the actual growth of dollar prices against the goal of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body which sets monetary policy for the United States. The dashboard is free to access, with the intention of better informing the public. In this post, I provide additional guidance on understanding these data and the Fed's inflation target.

Today, I launched the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) Dashboard. Its purpose is to better communicate the economic projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body which sets monetary policy for the United States. The dashboard is free to access, with the intention of helping the public make better-informed economic decisions. In this post, I provide additional guidance on understanding these data and projections.

Properly accounting for federal liabilities is difficult because their sizes are uncertain and state-contingent, with off-balance-sheet liabilities structured like short, out-of-the-money puts. In good times, the government's creditworthiness may nonetheless allow it to borrow extraordinary amounts at low interest rates. In bad times, these liabilities expose the government to extreme and correlated losses which threaten fiscal solvency and financial stability.

The fiscal position of the U.S. federal government substantially worsened in the first half of 2020. As a result, the U.S. now faces an increased risk of debt crisis. One measure places the government's on-balance-sheet liabilities at over 130 percent of GDP, with trillions of dollars in additional off-balance-sheet liabilities. Swift and comprehensive action must be taken before the risk of a debt crisis is realized.